Christopher Clary argues in “The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned” that the 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan was less a product of reconciliation than of strategic calculation. For New Delhi, de-escalation along the Line of Control (LoC) offered relief amid mounting tensions with China and pressing domestic priorities. For Islamabad, the ceasefire provided an opportunity to recalibrate its overstretched security and economic posture. Crucially, the agreement emerged not through formal diplomacy but via discreet backchannel talks highlighting the utility of informal mechanisms in managing rivalries.
Clary’s analysis builds on the foundational work of Happymon Jacob, whose Line on Fire documents the operational realities and political calculus behind ceasefire violations along the LoC. Jacob’s research exposed the absence of institutionalised communication and crisis-management frameworks, and the consequences of leaving escalation dynamics to tactical discretion. Clary forwards this scholarship by examining how the 2021 ceasefire fit into this broader pattern arguing that while backchannel agreements may deliver short-term calm, they lack the structural resilience needed to survive shocks.
The April 2025 Pahalgam attack, which left over two dozen civilians dead and was attributed by India to Pakistan-based militants, has tested the ceasefire’s limits. India responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, restricting Pakistani air access, and intensifying military activity along the LoC. Pakistan, in turn, heightened its military readiness and closed its airspace to Indian flights.
These tit-for-tat moves underscore Clary’s core insight: that tactical calm, absent deeper structural engagement, is fleeting. His call for restoring overt dialogue, institutionalising crisis-management frameworks, and pursuing incremental military confidence-building measures is now more urgent than ever. As the subcontinent teeters on the edge of renewed hostility, the 2021 ceasefire’s unraveling offers a sobering lesson strategic stability between nuclear rivals cannot be left to informal understandings alone.
