Dr. Jabin T. Jacob, Associate Professor at Shiv Nadar University, in his Issue Brief for The Japan Institute of International Affairs, examines the ongoing India-China border tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), excavating how, despite the recent diplomatic efforts and 2024 disengagement, a full resolution remains elusive.
A thaw in relations began in October 2024 with a bilateral agreement on troop disengagement at two LAC points, following tensions sparked by Chinese incursions in 2020. High-level meetings, including between Indian PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and their Special Representatives, followed. However, these steps have not restored normalcy.
Issue Brief, providing a historical overview of the India-China boundary dispute, notes that the conflict, rooted in the late 1950s, involves Aksai Chin (Western Sector), Arunachal Pradesh (Eastern Sector), and a smaller Central Sector. While bilateral relations started to normalise somewhat following the late 1970s, with agreements in 1993, 1996, and 2005, progress stalled, and tensions rose due to increased infrastructure development and troop encounters. The 2020 clashes, the deadliest since 1962, eroded trust, particularly between the militaries.
Dr. Jabin concludes that the latest agreements on disengagement should be taken with a pinch of salt and should not be misinterpreted as a return to normalcy. He simultaneously notes that while an all-out conflict is unlikely, periodic clashes and persistent tensions along the LAC are expected, as the pre-2020 status quo remains unrestored, making tension management increasingly complex.
