Oil shocks are never just about oil. They reshape industrial strategy, political alliances, and the balance between wealthy importers and vulnerable economies. As Europe re-enters crisis mode and India faces mounting energy pressure, an old market logic is returning with force: when prices surge, whose demand breaks first?

Energy crises do not distribute their costs neutrally. They reveal hierarchies—of contract, of capital, and ultimately of politics. In 2022, Europe experienced this acutely. The lessons it drew were multifold: diversify supply, accelerate renewables, and secure LNG terminals. The lessons it did not draw were strategic: that buying your way out of a crisis is not the same as building your way through one, and that in a multipolar world, the partners you will need tomorrow are shaped by the choices you make under pressure today.

First to India. The ongoing Hormuz crisis is more than an energy-price shock for the country: it is a stress test for the entire macroeconomic architecture of its rise. Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 growth projection from above 7% to 5.9% in three weeks. The rupee has come under sustained pressure. Roughly 88% of India’s crude oil, 50% of its LNG/natural gas, and 60% of its LPG consumption are imported, while around 90% of LPG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi is scrambling for alternatives with diminishing room to manoeuvre.