A crisis in Hormuz quickly becomes an Indian problem. The question is how much room India has when its vital energy routes are disrupted.

One of the “seven keys” that control access to and egress from the Indian Ocean, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint. 25% of the world’s traded oil and 20% of its natural gas passed annually through this narrow waterway until the situation was disrupted by the combined attack on Iran by Israel and the United States on 28 February 2026. Not unexpectedly, Iran played the Hormuz card, declaring that the strait was closed to all traffic on 04 March 26, besides retaliating against US bases and its allies in the region through drone and missile attacks. Both Israel and the United States expected early capitulation from Iran, with President Trump announcing that Operation Epic Fury would be over in six weeks. The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on 23 March 2026 that the Iran war had triggered the worst energy shock ever recorded, which would have serious adverse effects on the global economy, especially as what was being disrupted was not merely oil and LNG, but also about 33% of the world’s fertilisers, including sulphur and ammonia, as also aluminium and sugar.