As Donald Trump intensifies his threats to leave NATO, allies are confronting an unsettling reality. What may appear as rhetoric carries deeper strategic consequences, forcing Europe to rethink deterrence, defence, and its long-standing reliance on American power in an increasingly volatile security landscape. But the real question is: can the United States really walk away from NATO?
Donald Trump’s increasingly strident threats to leave the NATO Alliance are reaching a crescendo. His frustration with the Alliance for its “failure” to support the US in the Persian Gulf is the proximate cause, but he has, of course, threatened to leave NATO before. Does he really mean it this time? Could he even do it, if he wanted?
Trump has been no fan of NATO for decades. He has repeatedly claimed that he has never believed the allies would defend America if it ever came to it. He has also long viewed NATO as a drain on the US taxpayer, and loudly pointed out, with justification, that many members have failed to make their agreed contributions over many years. While that has now been, or is being, corrected due to a combination of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Trump’s pressure, his displeasure with the Alliance remains.