Letter from the Americas
More than six decades after the 1959 Cuban Revolution, the political order built by Fidel Castro appears to be facing its most serious crisis. As Washington reasserts its influence in the hemisphere, economic crisis and the loss of external support are pushing the island to the brink of collapse. If the revolutionary state finally gives way, and Cuba fall under renewed American influence, will it move toward democracy or witness the survival of the old elite in a new guise?
Spare a thought, as you go about your busy day, for the Cuban Revolution. It is teetering on the brink of collapse. Given the lead time between submission of this article and publication, it may already have done so by the time you read this. As Trump recently boasted in the Oval Office, “I do believe I’ll be … having the honour of taking Cuba,” adding, “Whether I free it, take it – think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth. They’re a very weakened nation right now.”
While few who live under the poverty and repression of that Revolution will necessarily miss it, the manner in which its end is coming should give pause to all. Cuba is shaping up to be the second act, after Venezuela, of the Trump Administration’s full-throated re-invention of the Monroe Doctrine. “Success” there for the Trump Administration will only feed the apparently insatiable appetite for more change elsewhere.