For India, the Middle East is no longer just a neighbourhood defined by oil and remittances. It is a complex strategic theatre stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. As conflicts disrupt shipping and reshape regional alignments, India’s room for diplomatic manoeuvre is becoming increasingly constrained. How can India preserve strategic autonomy across such an unstable region?
For India, the Middle East is not simply a region to its west. It is a field of exposure stretching from Hormuz to Haifa, from Chabahar to Suez, and onward to Morocco. India’s policy here cannot be understood merely as a balancing act between Israel and the Arab world, or between the Gulf and Iran. India is trying to hold its position across three overlapping arcs: a Gulf arc of dependence, a continental arc of blocked access and disorder, and a Mediterranean arc of connectivity and competition. The lesson of the current conflict is stark. In today’s Middle East, no arc burns alone.
The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states remain the core arc because that is where India’s exposure is concentrated. Trade with them is close to $200 billion, with the UAE alone accounting for around $100 billion. Close to 10 million Indians live across the GCC. India depends on imports from the region for the bulk of its crude and a substantial share of its gas. But the relationship now extends far beyond hydrocarbons to investment, logistics, food security, infrastructure, technology, aviation and ports.