Published as part of the Lowy Institute Papers, India in a World Adrift: A Rising Power Takes its Place Among Rivals by Shivshankar Menon examines the accelerating pace of geopolitical change in Asia and India’s evolving role within it. Menon argues that the world is transitioning away from a structured, US-led order toward a more fluid and unpredictable global environment. This transformation is driven by the erosion of established institutions, the rise of revisionist powers, and internal shifts within the United States. He warns that an increasingly radicalized “Trump 2.0” coalition is accelerating US protectionism and isolationism, undermining Western geopolitical unity. Fragmentation within NATO and growing doubts about US security commitments signal a weakening of traditional alliances.
A key focus of Menon’s analysis is China’s geopolitical ascent and its implications for Asia. While acknowledging Beijing’s economic and political influence, he contends that Asia is unlikely to be dominated by a single power. Instead, he envisions a multipolar Asia, where regional actors engage in complex balancing strategies. He also highlights the breakdown of the nuclear nonproliferation regime, warning that growing security threats—particularly in Northeast Asia—could drive more nations to pursue nuclear weapons, despite their limited utility as warfighting tools.
Menon argues that the emerging “orderless” world presents both challenges and opportunities for middle powers like India. He advocates for a pragmatic, flexible foreign policy that recognizes the evolving power distribution and prioritizes strategic autonomy. As Asian geopolitics rapidly rebalances, Menon positions India as a key player navigating this transformation. By reassessing global uncertainties, his work offers a framework for understanding the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape and the role India can play in shaping it.
