The latest crisis in the Persian Gulf is not only testing regional stability but also great-power behaviour in an era of shifting influence. For China, whose economic and strategic interests are deeply tied to West Asia, the stakes are immediate and significant. Despite this, Beijing has opted for a calibrated, cautious approach rather than decisive leadership. Does this reflect a deliberate strategy, or structural limits to its power projection?
The conflict in the Persian Gulf since 28 February is unnerving China, as it is other countries. Unlike previous conflicts, however, the US–Israel military actions against Iran and the latter’s retaliation have led to spillover across the entire West Asian region, threatening to spread globally through disruptions to energy flows.
For China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, the conflict—and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz restricting energy flows—could trigger inflation and constrain outbound trade, thereby affecting its economic growth prospects, already reeling from pandemic-related disruptions and tariffs.