Foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan, along with the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are set to meet a day after President Trump’s inauguration for his second term. A meeting so early on in the new Trump administration signals his priorities for the Indo-Pacific and his perspective on the Quad’s role in U.S. foreign policy.
Several questions have arisen in the lead-up to his election about Trump’s foreign policy priorities, diplomatic style, and commitment to maintaining the Quad as a key component of US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific. While these concerns are legitimate, they may stem from a misunderstanding of the fundamental principles underpinning the Quad, the Indo-Pacific, and, most importantly, Trump himself.
Three factors ensure that the Quad will thrive under the new Trump administration, albeit with some adjustments.
Structure reigns supreme
First, the centrality of China is undeniable in U.S. foreign policy. This stems from the assessment that China poses a long-term threat to U.S. interests in the region. While other Quad members like India may not express this clearly, there is no doubt that they support Washington’s assessment. Others, like Japan and Australia, have slowly but surely aligned with this view and increasingly incorporated it into their official policy. Therefore, the China challenge is both permanent and pervasive—it exists independently of any adjustments the Quad countries might make in their bilateral relationships with China.
