Letter from Japan
As tensions escalate following the US–Israel attack on Iran, Japan is moving swiftly yet cautiously, balancing evacuation efforts, economic risks, and diplomatic sensitivities. Heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy and constrained by its alliance with the United States, Tokyo’s response reflects both necessity and hesitation. But in a rapidly intensifying conflict, can Japan maintain this strategic ambiguity without eroding its credibility?
Two weeks after the outset of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, Japan continues to evacuate its nationals as its first line of defence. Japanese citizens in and around Iran are estimated at around 8,000, out of which about 200 are in Iran and about 1,000 are in Israel. Since the US and Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facility in June 2025, the government has been prepared for another crisis like this, and the evacuation of those willing to leave has started relatively smoothly.
Compared to that, there seems to be no way out for Japanese oil tankers stranded within the Persian Gulf. There are over 40 tankers and other cargo ships that cannot sail through the Strait of Hormuz, unless there is a guarantee of safe passage. One of them has already suffered light damage from an unknown cause. The risk of being targeted is felt at an alarming level. Three immediate policy issues are worth discussing: the economic impact on Japan, Tokyo’s relationship with the Trump administration, and Japan’s double standard on the rule of law.