Institute of Geoeconomics published a commentary titled India’s Strategic Autonomy in a Trumpian World by Dr. Manish Sharma, Visiting Research Fellow, on July 11, 2025. The piece examines how India is recalibrating its defence industrial strategy and trade negotiations in response to deepening geopolitical fault lines, especially after Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States.
Dr. Sharma’s analysis is anchored around a rare admission by India’s top defence official: China and Turkey provided active military and intelligence support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, last month’s border conflict. This revelation marks a shift in India’s traditional opacity over real-time security assessments and highlights a growing sense of urgency in Delhi’s strategic establishment.
Against this backdrop, Dr. Sharma traces how India’s defence modernisation drive is evolving beyond import substitution toward an export-driven model. Indian conglomerates like Tata, Reliance, Adani and Bharat Forge are expanding domestic manufacturing, backed by rising defence budgets and diplomatic efforts to position Indian hardware, including BrahMos missiles and Akash systems, in Southeast Asian and West Asian markets. Shipbuilding, nuclear-powered submarines and fifth-generation fighter jets have become immediate priorities to address the challenge posed by China’s naval assertiveness and potential technological edge, such as its unconfirmed sixth-generation fighter programme.
The essay also dissects India’s dilemma between deepening defence ties with Russia, which has offered co-production of Su-57 jets and complete transfer of technology, and leveraging Western interest in India’s fast-growing defence market. Choosing Russia risks alienating Western firms like Lockheed Martin, Rolls-Royce and GE, all eyeing joint ventures in India. The episode of a British F-35B stranded in southern India serves as a symbolic reminder of the reputational vulnerabilities tied to Western hardware.
In parallel, Dr. Sharma examines India’s balancing act in trade policy. India is negotiating a mini trade deal with the US amid Trump’s tariff-first posture. While Washington demands a baseline 10% tariff, India seeks exemptions and access for labour-intensive exports such as textiles, footwear and leather, while shielding its politically sensitive agriculture sector that employs nearly half the population. The underlying argument is that even an imperfect deal that locks tariffs at predictable levels could still attract fresh FDI by contrasting with Washington’s far higher duties on China and Vietnam.
Finally, the commentary frames India’s participation in both the BRICS summit in Rio and the upcoming QUAD summit in Delhi as part of a broader attempt to retain “strategic autonomy,” navigating between the Western security order and emerging Global South institutions rather than being forced into exclusive alignment. Dr. Sharma argues that this autonomy increasingly comes with an economic cost, as India must hedge carefully to keep open its options for advanced defence technology, foreign investment and diplomatic space.