The Centre for Social and Economic Progress’s (CSEP) Flagship Paper No. 5, titled Aspects of the Changing Geopolitical Order and published in June 2025, is authored by Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Advisor and one of India’s most respected strategic thinkers. The paper offers a timely and unsparing assessment of the global geopolitical environment following Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. It argues that the world is not in transition towards a new order but rather adrift, with no coherent global architecture emerging to replace the post–Second World War liberal framework.
Menon describes a world in which major powers are no longer status quo actors but revisionist ones, intent on reshaping international arrangements in their own favour. Multilateralism has decayed, Western cohesion has fractured, and institutions such as the WTO and UN have lost their ability to regulate global behaviour. China’s rise continues to alter the balance of power, while the US under Trump 2.0 has withdrawn from global leadership and embraced an aggressive, ideologically charged, and inward-looking policy approach. In this setting, no single power is in a position to define or stabilise the system.
The paper’s core argument centres on the structural and ideological shifts under Trump’s second term. Unlike his first stint in office, Trump now leads a more organised and radical coalition, comprising nationalist populists, techno-libertarians, and elements of the US political and business elite. His administration’s approach to climate, trade, governance, and international norms is no longer erratic but deliberately disruptive. The result is a diminished American alliance system, an accelerated move towards great-power rivalry, and a new age of unilateralism. China could be the chief beneficiary of this turn, and its growing influence across Asia, Africa, and even Europe is a critical geopolitical outcome.
For India, the implications are complex. A potential US–China rapprochement could reduce India’s strategic weight in the Indo-Pacific. The transactional nature of Trump’s foreign policy also introduces new economic risks. Although the United States remains India’s largest economic partner, India faces the threat of punitive tariffs and declining foreign investment. Menon points out that this may nonetheless be an opportunity for India to reform its trade policies, attract mid-tech FDI, and reposition itself within realigned global supply chains. The shift away from high tariffs and non-tariff barriers, already visible in the February 2025 budget, could help India integrate better into global markets.
The paper also raises the alarm over a potential breakdown of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. As US security guarantees become less credible, countries like South Korea, Germany, and Japan may reassess their nuclear choices. This creates a scenario of heightened proliferation risks, especially if US disengagement continues. Regional powers, left to their own devices, are already acting with greater autonomy, from Gaza to the South China Sea.
Menon argues that India must respond with agility and clarity. Rather than being preoccupied with global status or alliances, India should focus on building its internal capacities and regional influence. There is a pressing need to re-engage with Southeast and Northeast Asia, revive regional trade integration, and develop a more flexible foreign economic policy. India should also use its strengths to shape outcomes in its immediate neighbourhood, including the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean Region, by offering itself as a source of stability, prosperity, and leadership.
One of the paper’s most thought-provoking points is the need for a recalibrated relationship with China. Menon advises against joining any ideological containment effort led by the West. Instead, he suggests exploring a pragmatic modus vivendi with Beijing that serves Indian interests while avoiding entanglement in a US–China confrontation.
In conclusion, Shivshankar Menon’s Aspects of the Changing Geopolitical Order is not simply a diagnosis of disorder. It is a strategic warning and a call for policy imagination. Drawing a parallel with the reforms of 1991, the paper urges Indian policymakers to act during this hinge moment in history. The choices made now could determine India’s strategic trajectory for decades to come. In a world without a single centre of gravity, only self-reliant and flexible powers will shape the future.
