Tarique Rahman’s election win comes with a mandate to shape Bangladesh’s foreign policy in ways that matter to India. After the BNP’s election victory on February 13, 2026, when asked about ties with India, Rahman explained that “the interests of Bangladesh and its people will determine our foreign policy”, clarifying that Dhaka will frame relations around national benefit rather than predetermined alliances.
Rahman noted that Bangladesh’s foreign policy will not be “country-specific” and will be guided by national interest and mutual respect, including cooperation with China under the Belt and Road Initiative if it benefits Bangladesh’s economy.
What Remains Unchanged
Although the political leadership in Dhaka has changed, the economic and infrastructural spine of India–Bangladesh ties remains firm. Bilateral trade in FY 2023–24 stood at roughly $14 billion, with India exporting close to $12 billion in goods and importing nearly $2 billion. Bangladesh is one of India’s largest trading partners in South Asia, particularly for Indian manufacturers and agricultural suppliers. The trade support industries, logistics networks, and employment on both sides of the border.
India and Bangladesh remain interdependent—even more so in energy cooperation. India currently supplies more than 2.4 gigawatts of electricity to Bangladesh every day, a volume that feeds directly into urban consumption and industrial production. Fuel connectivity has expanded as well, particularly through the Bangladesh–India Friendship Pipeline, which transports refined petroleum products from Indian facilities into northern Bangladesh. Energy cooperation operates through long-term contracts, regulatory coordination, and daily grid management. These arrangements are complex to pause and expensive to reverse.
Connectivity projects have also increased. Transit arrangements now allow movement between mainland India and the Northeast via Bangladeshi territory, reducing both time and costs for transporters. In recent years, rail, road, and river links have expanded, making Bangladesh a critical link in India’s regional logistics strategy. Local economies have adapted around these routes. Since these systems underpin growth, stability, and ongoing cooperation, both governments have strong incentives to preserve them.
Where India Looks for Reassurance
Security cooperation forms the backbone of India’s confidence in the government in Dhaka. During the early 2000s, Indian agencies cautioned that insurgent groups targeting the Northeast were finding shelter inside Bangladesh, which left a lasting impact on Delhi’s strategic thinking. After Sheikh Hasina returned to office in 2009, her government moved decisively against many of these networks, handed over wanted militants, and expanded intelligence coordination. Her efforts transformed the security climate along India’s eastern frontier and laid the foundations for political trust.
Rahman has spoken about strengthening law and order and ensuring safety for all communities, suggesting that domestic stability in Bangladesh directly shapes regional confidence. For India, reassurance will ultimately depend more on operational cooperation between security agencies than on public rhetoric.
Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to India, M. Riaz Hamidullah, has previously described the bilateral relationship as “deep and multi-layered” and grounded in “mutual trust and respect.” He reiterated that Bangladeshi territory will not be used for activities inimical to India’s interests. Although these remarks predate the election, their emphasis on reciprocity aligns with the vocabulary Rahman appears to be adopting.
The Question of Sheikh Hasina
Sheikh Hasina has been in India since fleeing Bangladesh following the 2024 political upheaval that brought her government to an end. Her presence in India remains a sensitive issue in Dhaka’s domestic politics and in bilateral exchanges. Asked about the matter after the election, Tarique Rahman said that any request concerning her status would proceed according to legal procedures rather than under political pressure.
The issue carries weight because sections of Bangladesh’s political spectrum expect accountability from former leaders, and India must balance legal process, diplomatic practice, and regional stability.
India’s Initial Outreach
Narendra Modi moved quickly once the scale of Tarique Rahman’s victory became evident. In his congratulatory message, Modi said the verdict reflected the democratic will of the Bangladeshi people and reaffirmed India’s commitment to peace, stability, and prosperity in the bilateral relationship.
Delhi backed the message with representation. India decided that Om Birla, Speaker of the Lok Sabha, would attend Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony. He was accompanied by senior officials, including Vikram Misri, India’s Deputy National Security Adviser. Sending the presiding officer of the lower house is a significant protocol gesture. It signals respect for the incoming leadership and acknowledges the authority of the electoral mandate. It also ensures that communication channels open at a high political level from the outset.
The pace of outreach reflects India’s concrete stakes. Bangladesh sits at the centre of India’s connectivity plans for the Northeast, serves as an anchor for several cross-border power arrangements, and occupies a critical place in India’s Bay of Bengal strategy. Keeping engagement steady with the government in office is therefore an operational necessity.
Early Indicators
India’s visa operations in Bangladesh were curtailed in 2023-24 amid political unrest and administrative disruption following the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government. The Indian High Commission in Dhaka operated under heavy security constraints, including restrictions on movement during protests and curfews, which affected routine consular processing. This culminated in visa issuance becoming limited largely to essential categories, slowing medical, student, and business travel. Bangladesh has historically accounted for a large share of Indian visas issued globally, particularly for healthcare and education. Indian officials have now indicated that complete services are likely to be restored as the new government stabilises conditions.
Tensions that brewed on the sporting front also appear to be cooling. The Bangladesh national cricket team declined to travel to India in January 2026 to play in the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup, citing security concerns amid political turbulence. The decision drew attention in both countries, as cricket carries symbolic weight in bilateral relations. However, Bangladesh’s new Youth and Sports Minister, Aminul Haque, signalled an intent to reset ties. With visa services restored and diplomatic engagement resumed, officials suggest the episode may not have lasting consequences.
What Experts Say
Writers and analysts expect India and Bangladesh to enter a more negotiated phase. Alexandra Sharp, writing in Foreign Policy, describes the transition as a potential reset after years of close political alignment, with Dhaka likely to diversify its options while maintaining necessary ties with India. In Reuters, Tora Agarwala reports, “China has deepened its economic and military footprint, including infrastructure investment and a drone factory near the Indian border.” Yet geography continues to constrain dramatic change. At the same time, Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group cautions that if Delhi and Dhaka fail to rebuild confidence, Bangladesh could accelerate engagement with Beijing, given the economic incentives available.
Rahman’s leadership will indicate whether the relationship is conducted with greater emphasis on negotiation, reciprocity, and public accountability.