The Middle East stands as the prime geopolitical example of the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity that is known by the acronym VUCA in policy circles. As the region grapples with multifaceted wars, shifting alliances, and the growing influence of non-state actors, the need for economic regional collaboration is in high demand. Integrating Gaza into the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) can significantly contribute to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, linking the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a strategy centred on engineering and international trade. This approach can amplify global interest in stabilising the region and pursuing a sustainable resolution to the protracted conflict. Amidst this landscape of uncertainty, the IMEC emerges as a viable pathway towards fostering constructive engagement and forging a more stable Middle East.
The corridor reflects the visions of its participating countries. For Saudi Arabia, it aligns with Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the oil-dependent economy and establish the Kingdom as a global logistics hub. The IMEC supports multilateral collaborations and foreign policies of the UAE while fostering a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with India. For Israel, the IMEC provides an opportunity to improve its island economy situation, which makes it rely heavily on maritime routes
VUCA in the Middle East
The notion of VUCA, first introduced by the U.S. Army War College, describes the challenges that arise in a landscape where traditional power structures are increasingly eroded. In the Middle East, this environment is evidenced by persistent conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the challenges posed by groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The past decade has highlighted the region’s failure to achieve a stable and cohesive order following the Arab Spring, with many nations experiencing heightened fragmentation and chaos. This instability is compounded by the region’s complex socio-political fabric, including deep-rooted identity issues, sectarian tensions, and economic disparities. With youth unemployment rates soaring and economies grappling with corruption and reliance on oil, the status quo remains precarious. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated these challenges, leaving societies disillusioned and vulnerable to extremism.
