During the Biden administration, U.S.-Pakistan relations had fallen to what many Pakistani interlocutors now describe as their lowest point in two decades. This sentiment, also shared by some U.S. diplomats in Washington, was largely driven by the externalisation of Washington’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and aggravated by a perspective within the Biden administration that even narrow engagement with Pakistan would risk the long-term bet that was being made on India. The result was a relationship that was adrift and held hostage by the experiences of the war in Afghanistan.
Donald Trump’s re-entry into the White House, however, has led to a dramatic shift in the relationship. Recent months have seen a quiet but noticeable thaw. Pakistani leaders, both civilian and military, are now engaged in serious conversations on a variety of topics, including forward-looking economic issues that can create win-win outcomes for both sides.
Many in India view this as largely an outcome of some sort of financial access gained via crypto deals with the Trump family ecosystem. But the reality is that this recalibration is rooted in cold, strategic economics. At the heart of the relationship are three economic sectors: critical minerals, technology, and agriculture.
