India may finally have an opportunity to emotionally integrate the people of Kashmir. The state has struggled for several decades to remove the feeling of ‘otherness’ in Kashmir, employing many strategies—from Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad’s development agenda to Operation Sadhbhavna of the Indian Army. Nothing has worked as well as this humongous tragedy. The outpouring of grief and support from local Kashmiris resonated with the anger and outrage demonstrated by the people of India after the Pahalgam attack.
Pakistan may have actually shot itself in the foot. This killing has ensured that no one in Kashmir now supports Pakistan. Such an impact of the Baisaran incident may not have been factored in by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan when they ordered the Lashkar-e-Taiba to carry out the massacre. Tourists have been targets before, but never on such a large scale. Beyond the economic impact, tourism had played an important role in emotionally integrating the people of Kashmir, a reason perhaps why tourists were targeted.
The Pakistani military has been struggling on several fronts, especially against the challenge from Imran Khan, the ousted former Prime Minister. After the reading down of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, they were seen as having done little for the people of Kashmir. Meanwhile, they are also facing insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The strategic depth, which they believed they had secured after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, has dissipated; the Taliban, as expected, has not cracked down on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Munir’s gambit
Faced with an imploding economy and a precarious security situation, the Pakistani middle class is becoming increasingly convinced that as long as the army controls the state, the situation will not improve. Gen. Asim Munir faces an existential threat of losing control over the Pakistani state. Despite the actions announced by India, memes originating from Pakistan are deeply critical of their own condition. Some even remark that they don’t get any water in any case, so how will stopping the Indus waters make a difference? One Kashmiri officer quipped that Asim Munir would not like to become the “Bahadur Shah Zafar” of the Pakistan Army.
Exacerbating this disillusionment in Pakistan is the belief that politicians like the Sharifs and the Bhuttos cannot control the military. Increasing global isolation is palpable; Pakistani nationals are becoming unwelcome in many Western countries. Moreover, the rising number of attacks on Pakistani security forces and civilians reinforces this belief.
