India and the US in the time of Trump

As the world gears up for Trump’s second innings, what is this likely to mean for India’s relationship with the
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Donald Trump has come to power on a radical agenda, which presages major shifts within the United States itself and in the U.S. approach to the world. The “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) and an “America first” approach are central to both his domestic and foreign policy, upturning traditional US positions on trade, immigration and alliances in ways that could pose challenges for adversaries, allies and partners alike. In India, Trump has enjoyed a certain popularity, given the positive trajectory of the relationship during his first term and his tougher approach to China and Pakistan. As the world gears up for Trump’s second innings, what is this likely to mean for India’s relationship with the U.S.?

The first point to note is that there is a bipartisan consensus within the U.S. on strengthening ties with India. Across changes of administration, both Republicans and Democrats have sought to build the India-U.S. strategic partnership. A key driver is their growing strategic convergence in the Indo -Pacific as they seek to shape a sustainable balance in Asia, anchored in the rule of law and conducive to peace and prosperity in the region. This is reinforced by shared democratic values, growing economic ties and technological partnerships and expanding connections between their people. These broad factors will continue to provide the framework within which the relationship under the second Trump presidency will unfold.

Differing priorities

Of course, there are differences in priorities, both domestic and global, as administrations change. This is particularly so today, as the U.S. continues to be deeply divided politically. There are two sets of priorities flowing from Trump’s domestic agenda, which could potentially impact the bilateral relationship with India. Illegal migration was an emotive issue during Trump’s campaign, and polls showed that most Americans favoured tougher policies to staunch the flow of illegal migrants into the US. Trump promised to undertake the largest mass deportation in U.S. history with the declared aim of deporting 1,000,000 migrants a year. In the first list of 1.5 million illegal migrants who have completed their legal hearings and are ready for deportation, there are reported to be 18,000 Indians, mostly from Punjab and Gujarat. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on those countries that don’t speed up the process of taking back their nationals. Further, amongst the 11,000,000 illegal migrants estimated to be residing in the U.S., over 7,25,000 are assessed to be from India. They would first have to be identified and have recourse to legal processes. All this could take some time. However, deportation on such a scale could pose a major challenge for the two countries.

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