The Israel–Iran conflict is often framed through the immediacy of strikes and retaliation, but its roots lie in a longer history of ideological rupture and strategic mistrust. From post-revolutionary hostility to years of indirect confrontation, both states have moved steadily toward this moment. As war replaces shadow conflict, one question defines it: was this war an inevitable turn in the trajectory of Iran–Israel relations?
Israel and the U.S. launched a “preemptive” strike on Iran on 28 February, assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day. The war is still ongoing but the days so far have made it clear that Iranian regime is still standing; it could declare another Supreme Leader in Mojtaba Khamenei, and has attempted to involve the Gulf states in this round of fighting by attacking megacities and globally connected hubs of trade and oil like Dubai and Abu Dhabi (UAE), Doha (Qatar), Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Manama (Bahrain), and Kuwait City. It has effectively halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, where approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day pass, representing roughly 20–30% of global oil and gas supplies. Wisely, none of the Arab states responded to the blockade, enduring a long spell of uncertainty, hoping it would pass soon, as in the earlier episode in June 2025 when Israel and the U.S. carried out strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites for 12 days.