The news that the Spanish Navantia – Larsen & Toubro (L&T) partnership did not clear the technical evaluation for the P75(I) submarine deal makes the German ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TkMS) – Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) combination the ‘resultant single vendor’ for the venture.
This implies that decks will soon be cleared for commercial negotiations to commence between TkMS-MDL and the Ministry of Defence (MoD), and the contract could be signed in the next 12-16 months, after which the actual process of construction of the submarines will commence. Going by historical timelines, all six submarines are likely to be delivered over the next 20 years, i.e., 2046, though contractual timelines will specify a shorter time-frame. This timeline is considered realistic as the weapons and sensors on the submarines must be nominated by the Indian side (which is normally the case) and requires clarity before finalising the design (based on TkMS’ latest Type 214 submarine). The fact that MDL will be simultaneously handling two submarine construction lines, the TkMS and Scorpene (three additional Scorpene submarines were cleared for acquisition in 2023), will also need to be taken into consideration.
The news is music to the eyes of the Indian Navy (IN), which has been labouring for the past 15 years on the acquisition process of the P75(I) project. Coming as it does, a few months after the Government of India (GoI) cleared the construction of two indigenous nuclear powered attack submarines (SSNs) and three additional Scorpene class submarines, the new acquisitions will provide the much-needed rejuvenation for the IN’s submarine arm, whose force was increasingly comprised of over 30-year-old submarines. Under the now well-known 30-year submarine building plan, approved by the Atal Behari Vajpayee government in 1999, India was to build 24 submarines over a 30-year period (1999-2029), with progressively greater indigenous content until the final batch would be fully designed and built in India. However, only six of the planned 24 submarines have been commissioned thus far. The contract for the first six Scorpene submarines under Project P75 was signed with DCNS, France, in 2005, and the sixth and last submarine of the project, INS Vagsheer, was commissioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi only in January this year.
Implications of Submarine Imbalance
The IN’s current conventional submarine force levels comprise the six new Scorpene class submarines, seven remaining Russian-origin EKM and four German-origin HDW submarines. The EKM and HDW submarines are ageing, having been commissioned between 1986 and 2000, and will have to be de-inducted progressively over the next decade. It is, therefore, evident that a serious degradation in force levels of conventional submarines looms before us. The construction of the next two batches of conventional and nuclear submarines takes on added urgency in the face of enhanced inductions of submarines by both Pakistan and China. Pakistan signed a contract with China in 2015 for eight Yuan-class (Type 039-A) conventional Air Independent Propulsion (AIP)-capable submarines at an estimated cost of $5 billion. Once all eight submarines are delivered, probably over the next decade, the Pakistan Navy’s sea denial capability will be greatly enhanced. Meanwhile, China’s own submarine-building programme is proceeding apace, and as per the latest assessment by the U.S. Department of Defense in August 2024, it comprises 47 modern conventional submarines and 10 nuclear attack submarines (not counting its six ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
This decline in the IN’s submarine force levels comes at a juncture when India is facing a challenging geopolitical environment, with confrontation with China having peaked since the Galwan clashes in 2020. China had commenced regular deployments of both its conventional and nuclear submarines to the Indian Ocean region (IOR) since 2013, under the pretext of anti-piracy patrols. In 2017, China also operationalised its first overseas military base in Djibouti, which is today capable of berthing and supporting both nuclear and conventional submarines and aircraft carriers. Karachi and Gwadar are two additional ports that China could use to support submarine operations in the waters around India.
With Russia now embroiled in a prolonged war with Ukraine, its reliability as an arms supplier has become tenuous. As such, with Russia and China reaching new heights of bilateral ties under their ‘no limits’ friendship, Russia’s unstinted support in a possible Sino-Indian conflict cannot be taken for granted. The growing imbalance in force levels of submarines between India and its two adversaries is, therefore, cause for worry. Faced with China’s growing naval strength in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and U.K. have combined forces to arm Australia with nuclear powered attack submarines (SSNs) under the AUKUS trilateral security partnership. India, not being part of any military alliance, will require its own credible underwater capabilities.
P75(I) and the Path to Indigenisation
The P75(I) project has several long-term spin-offs for India and the IN. It is the first successful case under the ‘Strategic Partnership’ category and could set the example for more such future projects. It is understood that as per the contract, the submarine design will be handed over to India by TkMS for use in subsequent projects. This will go a long way in ensuring that future conventional submarines are fully designed in-house – a long-term aim of the submarine building plan.
There is also likely to be a very high degree of indigenisation as several equipment, such as software and hardware for combat information systems, sonars, electronic warfare systems, communication equipment, pumps, and diesel generators, have been indigenised and proven on other submarines over the years. In January 2022, the IN had also certified the indigenous submarine-building steel made at the Rourkela Steel Plant (under the Steel Authority of India) for use in the construction of future indigenous submarines. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)-designed heavyweight torpedo, Varunastra, undertook the first successful submarine-launched underwater target engagement in June 2023, and the torpedo could soon be ready to arm the P75(I) submarines.
However, the equipment that led TkMS to become the resultant single-vendor, the Air Independent Propulsion (AIP), will be the proven German Lithium-ion variant. This, too, could be subsequently indigenised after the successful demonstration of the indigenous AIP module by DRDO on a land-based prototype in 2021. Once proven, it is likely to be fitted on future submarine programmes. In short, the P75(I) programme is likely to lead to a completely indigenously designed and largely indigenous Project 76.
Bilateral Benefits with Germany
The deal will also help to further galvanise the Indo-German strategic partnership, especially its defence component, which had reached a low ebb after the black-listing of HDW, who had supplied the Type 208 Shishumar-class submarines to the IN in 1986-1994 and continue to serve the Navy well. The ban was lifted by India after HDW was taken over by TkMS. A transformation in relations took place when Germany pivoted towards the Indo-Pacific and issued its ‘Policy Guidelines for the Indo-Pacific’ in 2020, which recognised its critical economic interests in the region, both for energy and trade, and underscored the importance of closer defence relations with India for its national security. Germany also realised that it had been punching far below its weight in India’s defence market, and the decline in Russian defence equipment supply to India due to the ongoing war in Ukraine gave it a window of opportunity. In a significant move in this direction, the German government lifted a ban on the sale of small arms to India in April 2024.
The final step towards raising the Indo-German partnership to a new level was the adoption of a strategic document titled ‘Focus on India’ by the German cabinet in October 2024, which asserted, inter alia, that Germany wanted to be a reliable security partner to India. The areas of defence cooperation mentioned in the document include frequent deployment of German Armed Forces units, especially the German Navy, to the Indo-Pacific, increase in bilateral exercises and training, reciprocal logistics support, and exchange and cooperation on arms-related issues. The likely conclusion of the contract for the six P75(I) submarines needs to be seen in this overall context.
The growing bonhomie between India and Germany is not only a reflection of the historical affinity between both peoples based on shared cultural bonds but is also a recognition of the symbiotic benefits of such a partnership. For Germany, security and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region are critical for its continued economic vitality, which has come under stress over the past few years, and India is an invaluable ally in this effort. For India, Germany is a significant strategic partner that can provide cutting-edge technology, especially in the field of defence, and speed its journey towards Atmanirbharta. A win-win situation if ever there was one!
