The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE), in a new modelling study published in Energy and Climate Change, assess India’s progress toward its climate goals and identify key levers for deeper emissions cuts ahead of COP30.
The analysis finds that India is on track to exceed its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 45 percent compared to 2005 levels. Projections suggest a reduction of 48 to 57 percent by 2030. However, achieving net zero by 2070 will require additional policy measures such as carbon pricing, electricity tariff reforms, fiscal support for clean technologies, and behavioural interventions.
The study models 18 scenarios using the India-specific Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). It proposes that India’s 2035 NDC could realistically aim for a 55 to 66 percent emissions intensity reduction and a 60 to 68 percent share of non-fossil fuel power capacity. This would help balance climate ambition with developmental priorities.
The report emphasizes that energy efficiency and sustainable lifestyle changes can deliver the highest absolute emissions reductions. Actions such as using energy-efficient appliances, reducing private vehicle use, and optimizing residential energy consumption, modelled under the Mission LiFE framework, could cut emissions by up to 10 percent by 2050 relative to a business-as-usual scenario.
Power pricing reforms are identified as a key driver of clean energy adoption. Lower tariffs for industrial and commercial users could accelerate electrification, while higher residential tariffs, coupled with targeted support for low-income households, could make rooftop solar more attractive. Strengthening the electricity grid will also be essential to manage rising demand.
In high-growth scenarios aligned with India’s Viksit Bharat vision, total emissions would increase, but emissions intensity would decline. This outcome is linked to the adoption of efficient technologies and the expansion of low-emission manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors.
Transport sector reforms, including electric vehicle adoption and revitalization of public transport, are also seen as essential. Improving bus services, building charging infrastructure, and providing incentives can help shift consumer behaviour and reduce urban emissions.
The authors argue that India’s next NDC should reflect enhanced ambition grounded in economic realism. A well-structured strategy with clear targets, sectoral carbon budgets, and a focus on both supply and demand interventions will be essential to ensure a resilient and equitable low-carbon pathway.
