The Strait of Hormuz stretched ahead of me like a placid lagoon, the setting sun’s rays sparkling like embers on its dark surface. The fishermen steering my motorboat that day did not mind the tankers. In fact, the constant tanker traffic seemed to help them by driving the fish towards the shore. On a clear day, they said one could see right across the strait. This was my abiding memory from a holiday to an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf a few years ago. When the passenger ferry broke down, I’d found myself on a fishing boat returning to the mainland. I could not have then imagined that these placid waters would one day become the world’s most perilous waterbody.
Iran today says the strait is closed for all except “enemies”. The US says NATO should pitch in to help secure the strait and has issued an ultimatum to Iran to open the strait.
If there were a military operation now by the US to take control of the strait by force, what might it look like? From a tactical perspective, the US with UAE’s support may try to capture the three disputed islands of Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb and Greater Tunb to the south-west of the Strait. These are under Iranian control but are claimed by the UAE. Interestingly it is the one territorial claim in West Asia that both the US and China recognise. These islands are crucial for Iran to monitor the waterway, expand on its territorial waters and project power into the strait.
The US may also increase attacks on Qeshm island to the north-west of the strait, which is a major economic hub for Iran and the winter getaway for Iran’s elite. Qeshm is close to the mouth of the waterway and several of the recently launched projectiles against tankers appear to have been launched from the direction of this island. Qeshm is also the supply hub for the islands of Abu Musa, Lesser and Greater Tunb. Indeed, the strike on the desalination plant in Qeshm island may have been an effort to deprive military personnel on the three islands and force them to submit.