President Donald Trump is currently transfixed with attempts to bring about a ceasefire in Europe, as well as the rollback of Iran’s nuclear program. In sharp contrast, he has been somewhat emollient on China and reticent on Taiwan. As geopolitical temperatures rise in the Indo-Pacific, one wonders as to how Taiwan’s future will unfold: will the USA only deter, will it fight, or will it fold?
From political warfare to lawfare to espionage, and through the shenanigans of the United Works Department (the CCP’s chief influencer), the CCP is unleashing every arrow in the quiver of its Taiwan cause. The posturing of the Chinese military in the South China Sea is getting increasingly potent and pointed: coast guard patrols were up 20% in 2024 over the previous year, maritime militia expeditions to disputed sites similarly, were up 35% in 2024 over the previous year; air violations, missile firings, blockading, amphibious exercises, drone parades, use of barges, space manoeuvres, undersea cable disruptions are all increasing. The Russians and the North Koreans have partaken in military drills in the South China Sea and its neighbourhood to signal trilateral solidarity. A month ago, the US Commander of Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, warned specifically that the drills were no longer mere exercises, but rehearsals for attack.
