In an article titled “From Big Five to Big Four? – Rethinking Geopolitical Power,” for the Yale Journal of International Affairs (December, 2024) Sri Lankan scholar Nilanthan Niruthan questions the conventional classification of the “Big Five” global powers—the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. He proposes a re-evaluation of this framework in light of India’s ascent as a “uniquely autonomous decision-maker” across three macro domains: security, economy, and diplomacy.
As the global influence of the UK and France wanes, Niruthan suggests replacing them with India in a redefined “Big Four” comprising the United States, Russia, China, and India.
The article highlights India’s growing strategic autonomy, illustrated by its development of anti-satellite and hypersonic missile capabilities—markers of hard power that distinguish it from its European counterparts. Economically, India’s $3 trillion economy—driven by rapid growth among emerging markets—now surpasses both the UK and France. On the diplomatic front, India demonstrates exceptional agility, sustaining strong relations with a wide spectrum of nations, including Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Ukraine. This ability to navigate a polarized global order without compromising autonomy underscores India’s evolving status as a confident and independent global actor.
By challenging the relevance of the traditional “Big Five” framework, the article offers a fresh perspective on shifting global hierarchies. Its core argument is clear: India increasingly demonstrates the strategic capabilities and diplomatic reach once attributed only to the world’s most influential powers—prompting a necessary rethinking of the global power structure.
