Mark Carney—leader of Canada’s Liberal Party and former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England—has achieved what few political pundits would have dared to predict just six months ago. He has revived his party’s fortunes, which had been trailing more than 20 points behind the rival Conservative Party—until then-leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down on January 6. Since then, Carney—swiftly elected as Liberal Party leader—has led the party to a near-majority victory in the federal elections on April 28, following a brief 37-day campaign. The Liberals, now entering a rare fourth consecutive term, won 169 of the 343 seats in the Canadian House of Commons—just three seats short of the 172 needed for a majority.
As with his party’s resurgence, could Carney’s election also help revive Canada’s strained relationship with India—a relationship that has reached one of its lowest points in the modern diplomatic history of democratic countries?
In September 2023, Carney’s predecessor, Trudeau, linked agents of the Indian government to the murder of Canadian Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. The following year, Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats for what it described as “a targeted campaign against Canadians by agents linked to the Government of India,” prompting a reciprocal response from New Delhi. While India denied all allegations, it levelled its own accusations, claiming that Canada provides a “safe haven” for Khalistani extremism and anti-India activities. Bilateral relations have further deteriorated amid Canadian allegations of Indian interference in its electoral processes.
Signs of a shift
As Carney begins a new chapter as prime minister, one of the most notable congratulatory messages came from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who stated that “India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties.” Modi added that he looked forward to working with Carney to “strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people.”
Carney, too, signalled during his election campaign a desire to turn a new leaf in bilateral relations. He described the relationship as “incredibly important” and stated that Canada would be looking to “diversify our trading relationships with like-minded countries, and there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India.”
Given how deeply frozen bilateral relations have been, such signals suggest a new window of opportunity for a potential thaw. Throughout the campaign, Carney projected a calm, crisis-manager image—having led the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England through Brexit—an image further reinforced by the existential threats posed to Canada by U.S. President Donald Trump. These same qualities may prove useful in Carney’s approach to India, particularly since one of the main irritants identified by New Delhi has been former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s public accusations against India without presenting evidence.
