Jennifer Lind in her work “Back to Bipolarity: How China’s Rise Transformed the Balance of Power” published in International Security (Fall 2024) argues, that the global order is now bipolar, dominated by the U.S. and China. The author introduces a method to measure national power using historical data (1820–1990). This method shows that China has surpassed key thresholds, making it a superpower capable of challenging the U.S.
Lind highlights that great powers have often competed with the leading state despite economic disadvantages. For example, the Soviet Union maintained intense competition with the U.S. even with only 44% of its GDP. Similarly, China does not need to match the U.S. economically to compete militarily and politically.
The study concludes that the world is now bipolar. China meets or exceeds historical great power standards, surpassing the Soviet Union at its peak. Its military strength and economic influence place it alongside the U.S. as the dominant global power.
India and Russia hold significant regional influence but do not qualify as great powers. They fall short on military spending and strategic reach. Japan and Germany have strong economies but lack the military power to compete globally. India’s growing economic power gives it influence, but it remains a regional player rather than a global one.
The shift to bipolarity has reshaped U.S. foreign policy. The U.S.-China rivalry will define global politics, forcing the U.S. to rethink its alliances and security strategies.The article argues that China’s rise has ended unipolarity, creating a bipolar world dominated by the U.S. and China.
This challenges Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, which aims to restore U.S.-led unipolarity through economic protectionism and military dominance. While Trump’s approach seeks to reassert American primacy, China’s growing capabilities challenge this unipolarity, and the balance of power remains fundamentally bipolar, making a return to unipolarity unlikely
