Where the War Stands
The war that began on 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening hours and striking targets across Iran in nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours alone, is now in its 27th day.
The war escalated to a dangerous point when Israeli strikes hit Iran’s South Pars gas field, pushing the conflict into the global energy system. Iran retaliated and targeted the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, which shares the massive offshore gas field, causing fires and extensive damage. Beyond Qatar, Iran threatened and, in some cases, targeted oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Along with this, Iran had effectively restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil flows. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, triggering a broader energy shock.
Iran also retains a significant nuclear stockpile, and missile fire continues to trigger alerts across Israel.
What Trump’s 15-Point Plan Proposes
On March 26, Trump’s administration offered a 15-point plan stating, “As per Iranian Government request … I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time,” Trump said in the post. “Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media and others, they are going very well,” he added.
The plan includes nuclear provisions that call for dismantling facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, a permanent commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons, the immediate transfer and down-blending of all uranium stockpiles to 3.67 per cent, complete International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, and an end to domestic enrichment. The Plan demands the establishment of a regional enrichment consortium that involves Iran, the United States, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, under external supervision. On the military front, the Plan demands that Iran limit the range and number of its ballistic missiles, as well as an end to support for regional armed groups, and a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure.
Additionally, the Plan calls for a 30-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It offers sanctions relief, though earlier versions of the proposal indicated that only nuclear-related sanctions would be lifted, not broader measures such as those linked to human rights. The Plan also calls for the removal of the UN snapback mechanism and includes U.S. support for electricity generation at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. Any funds released through sanctions relief would be restricted and could not be used to finance Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
During the White House meeting, Trump said the U.S. would become the Islamic Republic’s “worst nightmare” if it did not comply with U.S. demands, which include opening the Strait and ending Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Why Pakistan Is Mediating
When Operation Epic Fury closed the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February, Pakistan entered an immediate economic crisis. Over 85 per cent of its energy imports pass through the Strait. The government imposed a four-day workweek and emergency school closures, and LNG stocks began to run out. Pakistan also faces a direct security threat. It shares a 900-kilometre border with Iran and is already managing an active conflict with Afghan Taliban forces to its west and a volatile standoff with India to its east, following Operation Sindoor in May 2025. A destabilised Iran opens a third front it cannot afford.
Field Marshal Asim Munir has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively. Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Trump has described him as his “favourite field marshal.” Pakistani officials shuttled at least six messages between Washington and Tehran. Sharif and Pakistan’s foreign minister held over 30 conversations with regional counterparts in the past month, including six with Iranian officials.
No other country currently holds Pakistan’s diplomatic position. It has working ties with Iran, a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, and a functioning relationship with Washington. It hosts no U.S. military bases, giving it credibility in Tehran. It has hosted Iran’s diplomatic interests section inside its Washington embassy since 1992, making it Tehran’s only institutional back-channel to the United States. As Adam Weinstein of the Quincy Institute said, “Pakistan has unusual credibility as a mediator, maintaining workable ties with both Washington and Tehran.”
Why Iran Rejected the Plan
Iran called the proposal “extremely maximalist and unreasonable” and denied that formal negotiations are underway. A high-ranking Iranian diplomatic source told Al Jazeera the Plan was “not beautiful even on paper,” calling it deceptive and misleading in its presentation. Iran’s military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari, was blunter: “People like us can never get along with people like you. Not now. Not ever.”
Iranian state TV quoted an anonymous official as saying, “Tehran had rejected the plan it had received via Pakistan, Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met.”
Iran rejected the Plan because it demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear programme, cap its missiles, and reduce regional influence in a single agreement, which, to Tehran, reads as disarmament rather than diplomacy. The Plan expects Iran to act first, whereas Iran insists on a full end to attacks and firm guarantees before any concessions. It is also important to note that Iran’s nuclear programme, missiles, and regional alliances form its deterrence architecture, and surrendering them removes all leverage.
Any new talks would also have to address issues far beyond the nuclear question, including freedom of navigation through Hormuz, non-aggression guarantees for Gulf states and the Lebanon war, which Iran has explicitly made a condition of any ceasefire.
Despite Trump’s call for a ceasefire, the Israeli military continued strikes on Iran. Additionally, senior Iranian officials have been struggling to communicate internally, and they worry that Israel could bomb them if they meet in person. Who now holds the power to make decisions on diplomacy, war, and peace remains uncertain.
Iran’s Five Conditions for Peace
Iran has outlined its own terms for ending the war:
• A complete end to aggression and assassinations
• Guaranteed reparations for war damage
• Concrete guarantees preventing future attacks
• A region-wide ceasefire covering all fronts and allied groups
• Recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has also called for sanctions relief and, in some cases, changes to the U.S. military presence in the region.
Where This Leaves Things
The gap between the two sides is structural. The United States is linking a ceasefire to a rollback of Iran’s capabilities. Iran is linking a ceasefire to security, sovereignty, and compensation. These positions do not overlap. That is why the 15-point Plan has not moved forward. At the same time, the war continues alongside limited diplomatic efforts. Washington says talks are underway. Tehran denies it. Pakistan remains a key channel, but no agreement is in sight. For now, the conflict sits between escalation and negotiation, with neither side willing to shift its core position.