Trial by Water: Indus Basin and India-Pakistan Relations by Uttam Kumar Sinha is a meticulously detailed account of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), set within the broader evolution of India-Pakistan relations. Sinha uses the Indus Basin as a dual lens to examine how the ever-evolving political dynamics of the region shaped the IWT and, in turn, how the treaty transformed bilateral relations.
Sinha deconstructs the eight-year-long process that led to the IWT, eventually signed in September 1960, highlighting engineering choices, leadership calculations, domestic political divides, and Cold War geopolitics. In doing so, he reconstructs the making of the IWT from a nuanced perspective, presenting it as a highly technical and uniquely structured agreement, one that was scarcely understood at the time across the political spectrum in both India and Pakistan.
Even though the agreement granted Pakistan unrestrictive use of the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) and India of the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), Sinha’s references to Indian parliamentary debates reveal that Indian politicians believed that India had ceded the western rivers and was giving away more water. Pakistan, however, did not regard this outcome as a win either. It viewed the treaty as unfair and unequal, anxious about its vulnerability to India’s upstream dominion. In India, this divide symbolised a dissonance between “India’s self-image as a moral power” and an increasing “demand for a harder, interest-driven foreign policy”. Pakistan, meanwhile, adopted and perpetuated a victimhood narrative to generate international sympathy and consolidate domestic consensus.
A major strength of Trial by Water lies in its extensively researched historical and political detail, which allows for a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationship between the two countries, the riparian issues at stake, and the ways in which both have shaped one another. The book’s contemporary relevance is unmistakable. Against the backdrop of India’s recent decision to hold the treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack, Sinha’s analysis provides a rationale for India’s actions, one that accounts for changing demographics, evolving water needs, agricultural demands, and national security imperatives. The book illustrates how this transboundary water agreement moved from “principled magnanimity” to an instrument of strategic signalling, indicating a deeper transformation in India’s strategic culture. It also raises important questions about the treaty’s relevance, effectiveness, and future in the face of new realities.