Russia’s war-driven rupture with the West has deepened its reliance on China, turning a once pragmatic partnership into a central pillar of Moscow’s foreign policy. Yet China’s cautious neutrality, expanding economic leverage, and rising global ambitions have also introduced new constraints. As a Trump-era reset reopens U.S.–Russia dialogue, the question is whether warmer ties with Washington can meaningfully unsettle a partnership now bound by hard structural realities.
Russia-China relations underwent a major transformation during 2022–2024, as the former became engaged in the largest military conflict in its post-Second World War history. During this period, Russia’s economic and political ties with the West collapsed, and China replaced the European Union as Russia’s principal economic partner. Politically, China maintained a position of formal neutrality, calling on all sides to exercise restraint and work toward a ceasefire as soon as possible.
China refrained from delivering any military equipment to Russia, even though its scale of production capacity and existing stockpiles could have altered the course of hostilities in Russia’s favour.