The world’s payment networks, clouds, and data rails were built for frictionless interdependence. Today, they lie at the centre of geopolitical contestation. As sanctions proliferate and compliance regimes tighten, countries face a stark choice: build sovereign buffers or risk their essential systems being jolted by decisions made elsewhere. But in an age of contested interdependence, can any country remain globally connected entirely on its own terms?
When Microsoft briefly suspended cloud services to Nayara Energy in July 2025, it appeared to be a narrow compliance dispute. In reality, it marked a deeper rupture: it was a reminder that geopolitical rivalry now shapes the functioning of global digital and financial infrastructure. Nayara, part-owned by the state-controlled Rosneft, the largest oil-producing company in Russia, found itself exposed to EU sanctions even though Indian and US laws imposed no such requirement. Microsoft suspended services to avoid secondary exposure, disrupting the systems that support a refinery central to India’s fuel economy. The episode illustrated how global firms now operate under conditions of political contingency—and why nations increasingly require sovereign hedges to safeguard continuity.