Seoul, recalling the unpredictability of Trump’s first term, viewed his potential return to the White House with caution rather than despair. Trump has repeatedly described South Korea as a “rich” country or a “money machine,” complaining that while the U.S. is responsible for its defence, South Korea has been free-riding and not contributing its fair share. He even went so far as to claim that, despite being an American ally, Seoul has been exploiting Washington—benefiting from large trade surpluses by engaging in unfair trade practices and imposing tariffs four times higher than those of the U.S.
Unfortunately, when the second Trump administration was inaugurated in January, Seoul was in a difficult situation and rather ill-prepared due to unprecedented political turmoil. President Yoon Suk Yeol, now ousted from office, abruptly declared martial law in early December 2024, claiming that extraordinary measures were inevitable in response to what he saw as widespread legislative ‘abuse of power’ by the dominant opposition party, which held nearly two-thirds of the seats in the Korean National Assembly. Yoon’s martial law was short-lived and overturned within hours; he was immediately impeached, which ultimately led to his removal from office by the Constitutional Court in early April. In the months following the impeachment, however, the country descended into extreme political chaos, with the position of acting president changing hands three times. A presidential election has finally been called, and the incoming president is expected to take office immediately after the referendum scheduled for June 3.
A key challenge for the incoming Korean government will be to secure a trade deal that preserves amicable economic ties while minimising costly concessions in the face of Washington’s persistent demands. In the realm of security and defence, Seoul faces major challenges with far-reaching implications not only for its military preparedness against Pyongyang but also for its long-term role in East Asian regional security
With a trade surplus of USD 66 billion with the U.S. in 2024 alone, South Korea was singled out by Washington as one of the “Dirty Fifteen,” the fifteen countries with the largest trade surpluses with the U.S. As a result, Seoul was poised to face intense pressure from the Trump administration, which appears determined to rebalance trade relations with one of its closest allies in Asia.
