As Sheikh Hasina’s long tenure in Bangladesh has come to its end, India must confront a host of security challenges that will likely emerge in the post-Hasina era. Under Hasina’s government, the picture was a mixed bag: internally, Bangladesh has seen a significant decline in Islamist militancy—but for India, her administration has also been a crucial partner in curbing cross-border insurgencies. The question now, following her departure, is what happens next. Could the political shifts in Bangladesh lead to a reversal of these security gains, triggering instability that could spill over into India, particularly in its sensitive North-East region?  

The reverberations could be far-reaching. As it was, the effects of Bangladesh-based militancy were felt as far afield as Jammu and Kashmir. When I was posted as Deputy Inspector General of Police in Rajouri, I remember, Ilyas Kashmiri, the Commander of the 313 Brigade of the Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI) was responsible for the deadly attacks on the Army on Tanda camp in 2004 leading to the death of a Brigadier. They also carried out attacks on the army’s border posts.  

The upshot: political upheaval in Bangladesh could be destabilising for India beyond its immediate border with its eastern neighbour.