In a policy brief titled Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world, published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in September 2025 and authored by James Crabtree (Distinguished Visiting Fellow), the study examines how India is adjusting its foreign policy to manage uncertainty in its partnership with the United States. It explores India’s long-standing rivalry with China, its reliance on Russian arms and energy, and the potential for Europe to serve as a stronger partner in trade, technology, and security.
The report argues that although India has built its closest ties with Washington over the past two decades, Trump’s return to power has weakened trust in the United States. Protectionist tariffs, disputes over trade and visas, and unpredictable interventions in South Asia have all made Indian policymakers more cautious. At the same time, India’s competition with China remains the core driver of its strategic outlook, limiting the scope for accommodation. In this context, the study contends that India will deepen its policy of multi-alignment and that Europe now has an opportunity to emerge as a significant partner.
The study is structured around India’s evolving strategic options and Europe’s changing role in global affairs. It highlights how Europe’s response to the war in Ukraine, its renewed investment in defence, and its push for strategic autonomy have raised its standing in New Delhi. The report examines possibilities such as restarting the India–EU free trade agreement, strengthening the EU–India Trade and Technology Council, developing joint work on critical minerals and clean energy, and expanding defence and maritime cooperation.
Throughout the report, the author emphasises that India will not abandon relations with Russia or other Global South partners, but its priorities now tilt toward closer ties with advanced industrial economies. Europe offers capital, technology, and supply chain diversification without the heavy conditions attached to US or Russian alternatives. The study also notes that Europe and India share a growing concern about China, with Europe increasingly wary of Chinese trade practices and India facing security and economic threats along its borders.
A recurring theme is the need to overcome obstacles that have limited past cooperation. These include differences over Russia and Ukraine, bureaucratic delays, and Europe’s tendency to foreground values-based criticism rather than shared strategic interests. The report cautions that without political will on both sides, the current window could close.
The study concludes that the turbulence of Trump’s second presidency and China’s assertiveness create a rare chance for Europe and India to build a stronger relationship. It calls for concrete steps that prioritise economic partnership, technological collaboration, and credible security cooperation. In doing so, it frames India’s pivot to Europe as both a hedge against American unpredictability and a way to strengthen a multipolar global order.
Overall, the report portrays India’s turn to Europe as a pragmatic adjustment rather than a break from its wider strategy. It is both a challenge and an opening, urging Europe to prove its reliability and seize the chance to become a lasting partner for one of the world’s most important rising powers.