Stars and signs indicate that the India-U.S. strategic partnership will continue to grow and deepen under President Donald Trump despite a few predictable bumps in trade and immigration.
The bilateral relationship has entered a comfortable space where roadblocks are mainly sideshows, and differences can be overcome or effectively siloed. Trump’s key nominees are either India-friendly or passionate China hawks – a landscape fertile for further progress. “America First” can band with “India First” and maintain the upward trajectory to face the “China First” challenge.
But it’s good to remember that “unpredictability” is Trump’s middle name. His policy plans vis-à-vis China are unclear at the moment as his “team of rivals” gets to work. On the one side are China hawks, on the other are billionaires such as Elon Musk with deep investments in China.
From India’s point of view, an aggressive U.S. policy towards China acts as a deterrent and creates a more favourable balance of power in Asia, while an accommodative stance by Washington raises the risk of more grab-and-keep behaviour by Beijing. It’s too early to predict the ultimate direction. Trump’s offer to keep TikTok alive as a joint venture with China made a day before taking the oath of office will raise eyebrows and more. His promise violates U.S. law and the Supreme Court’s judgement upholding it.
