Recent U.S. actions—from placing an embargo on the advanced chips that power AI to threatening tariffs on India-made iPhones—are sending a clear signal to New Delhi: Washington cannot be its sole, reliable tech partner. These developments show that the intensifying tech warfare between the U.S. and China is not necessarily going to benefit India. On the contrary, India and other developing countries may be further restricted from partaking in global tech flows. We argue that in order to navigate tech geopolitics, India should learn from its historical experiences with technology denial regimes and double down on international tech collaboration to develop foundational strengths while it still can.
Washington’s shenanigans
Both the Biden and Trump administrations’ export control policies and tariffs have raised concerns about India’s access to critical technology and trade. The Biden administration’s AI diffusion framework, introduced during his final weeks in office, placed India in the “tier 2” category with restricted access to advanced AI; India was forced to contend with quotas, licences, and authorisation requests. Given the growing strategic partnership between India and the U.S., this was a pivotal moment. It signalled that despite growing strategic alignment, the U.S. will prioritise its tech leadership over empowering partners, compelling countries like India to diversify technological dependencies.
While the Trump administration has recently done away with the entire diffusion framework, such AI export control policies will likely reappear in other forms. On-chip controls, for instance, are already being discussed by U.S. lawmakers as a way to prevent cutting-edge U.S. chips from falling into Chinese hands.