Pascal Abb, in his article “Is There a Chinese ‘Developmental Peace’? Evidence from the Belt and Road Initiative’s Impact on Conflict States” (Journal of Contemporary China, 2024), explores how China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) affects political stability in fragile states, focusing on Pakistan and Myanmar. He argues that while China presents the BRI as a tool for fostering peace through infrastructure-led development, it often increases political instability and conflict in these regions.
Abb highlights that the BRI’s flagship project in Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has fuelled political tensions and violence. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has attacked Chinese projects and personnel, accusing them of exploitation and exclusion. The Gwadar port development has sparked protests over the lack of local benefits and heavy security measures, straining Pakistan-China relations and raising doubts about the project’s long-term success.
In Myanmar, BRI projects have increased conflict and human rights abuses. Chinese investments in Kachin and northern Shan states have triggered military actions against local ethnic groups, leading to displacement and unrest. Ethnic armed groups have resisted these projects, seeing them as threats to their autonomy and resources, which has intensified violence and political instability.
Abb concludes that the BRI’s approach to promoting “developmental peace” through economic growth has often backfired in conflict-prone states. Weak governance, elite capture, and corruption undermine project benefits, increasing instability and division.
China’s top-down strategy reflects its growing economic and strategic dominance in Asia but exposes a disconnect from local political realities. Despite aiming to lead in Asia, China’s transactional approach remains detached from the political complexities of South Asian politics.
