Few nations are as affected by Donald Trump’s re-election as Canada. In just a few short months, President Trump has upended more than a century and a half of peaceful relations and disrupted decades of steadily increasing economic integration. As Canada recovers from the shock of learning that our powerful neighbour no longer harbours the same expectations of a region built on mutual respect and the cooperative advantage, a determination is setting in—to create a new Canada; one which is more diverse and resilient.
At its core, Trump has shattered the trust Canadians once had that their vastly more powerful southern neighbour would never pose a threat. While few Canadians believe that even Trump would resort to military force and polls consistently show that an overwhelming majority of Americans would oppose this, his threat of annexation through economic coercion is deeply felt.
Put simply, Canada is vulnerable because it succumbed to the logic of continental economic integration. Canada’s economy is deeply dependent on unfettered access to the American market; its manufacturing sector is part of an integrated North American supply chain. Entire industries, such as the crucially important auto industry, are uniquely vulnerable to disruption of these chains. Canada’s resource exports also go overwhelmingly to the US. The infrastructure supporting these energy exports—primarily the pipeline system—is oriented entirely north-south. Despite warnings from some over the years that it was shortsighted, Canada still has no pipeline capable of transporting energy exports to the coasts, where they could access markets in Europe or Asia.
While all of this made some uncomfortable over the years, a strong majority saw it as natural. So long as the US was a benign neighbour, and it was, this relationship worked and delivered solid returns for Canada.
