Dr. Walter Ladwig, in his commentary for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), analyzes Operation Sindoor, India’s calibrated military response to the May 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, and what it signals about the future of Indian deterrence strategy against Pakistan.
Launched on 7 May, the operation involved Indian Air Force (IAF) strikes on terrorist-linked infrastructure inside Pakistan. Despite the loss of some aircraft to Pakistani retaliation, the IAF demonstrated precision-strike capability and the ability to penetrate Pakistani air defenses. Pilots operated under strict rules of engagement, avoiding preemptive attacks, reflecting a political intent to limit escalation.
Ladwig notes that India’s initial silence allowed media narratives to focus on a superficial technology contest between French and Chinese jets, rather than the operation’s strategic goals. Nonetheless, the operation marked a shift in India’s approach: cross-border strikes are no longer symbolic but part of expected policy. India has lowered the threshold for retaliation, holding Pakistan responsible for the presence of terrorist infrastructure, even without proof of state involvement.
There was no nuclear signalling or major military mobilization from either side, indicating that both India and Pakistan deliberately avoided escalation. Ladwig disputes alarmist claims of a nuclear brink, emphasizing the conflict remained limited by design. Looking ahead, he warns that deterrence by punishment carries risks. Non-state actors could provoke crises, and India’s continued ability to respond effectively will depend on stronger intelligence, refined targeting, and improved crisis management mechanisms.
Ladwig concludes that Operation Sindoor redefined India’s deterrence posture. It was a deliberate use of force intended to degrade terrorist threats while avoiding broader war, and it sets a precedent regional and global actors must take seriously.
